Al Raed vs Al Wehda
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-03 · 16:00 CET
DLWLL
WDWDWThe score model makes an Al Wehda win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Raed win — 36.6% vs 25.0% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Raed 1.49 – 1.51 Al Wehda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Raed win | 36.6% | 25.0% | +11.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.4% | +0.7% |
| Al Wehda win | 37.3% | 49.6% | -12.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 55.7% | +1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 35.0% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 57.8% | +3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 38.5% | +1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Raed 29 / Al Wehda 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Raed vs Al Wehda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.