Al Zulfi vs Al Jandal
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-02 · 15:55 CET
DWWDL
WLDDLThe score model makes an Al Zulfi win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Zulfi win — 57.3% vs 49.5% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Zulfi 1.82 – 0.93 Al Jandal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Zulfi win | 57.3% | 49.5% | +7.8% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 27.8% | -3.1% |
| Al Jandal win | 18.0% | 22.7% | -4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 46.3% | +5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 49.7% | +1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 32.0% | +2.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Zulfi 38.1 / Al Jandal 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Zulfi vs Al Jandal in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.