Al Jabalain vs Al Bukiryah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-02 · 13:30 CET
WDWWW
LLLDWThe score model makes an Al Jabalain win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.1% vs 67.6% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Jabalain 1.58 – 0.85 Al Bukiryah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jabalain win | 53.5% | 59.2% | -5.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 24.6% | +2.7% |
| Al Bukiryah win | 19.2% | 16.2% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 46.6% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 26.4% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 45.8% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 32.4% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Jabalain 45.7 / Al Bukiryah 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Jabalain vs Al Bukiryah in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.