Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-14 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLDThe score model made a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orenburg 1.20 – 1.66 Lokomotiv Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg win | 26.4% | 30.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.1% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 47.0% | 42.9% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 53.9% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 33.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 58.1% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.5% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orenburg 38.8 / Lokomotiv Moscow 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.