U. Cluj vs FC Rapid Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-12 · 20:00 CET
LWWWL
DWWWWThe score model made an U. Cluj win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: U. Cluj 1.37 – 0.97 FC Rapid Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Cluj win | 45.6% | 35.4% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 26.4% | 36.0% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 48.3% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 28.2% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 53.9% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 33.9% | -9.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: U. Cluj 46.6 / FC Rapid Bucuresti 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.