Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-10 · 19:00 CET
DWLWL
WDWWWThe score model makes a Dinamo Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 82.2% vs 72.3% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 1.00 – 1.18 Dinamo Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 30.5% | 22.7% | +7.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 28.4% | +1.5% |
| Dinamo Bucuresti win | 39.6% | 48.9% | -9.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 47.0% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 27.7% | -9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 50.4% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 32.7% | -7.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 22.6 / Dinamo Bucuresti 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.