FC Botosani vs UTA Arad
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-10 · 19:00 CET
WDWDL
DWWLWThe score model makes an FC Botosani win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.5% vs 67.8% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.42 – 1.04 UTA Arad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani win | 45.4% | 40.5% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.7% | +0.7% |
| UTA Arad win | 27.2% | 32.8% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 52.9% | -8.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 32.2% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 57.1% | -7.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 36.0% | -6.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Botosani 46.4 / UTA Arad 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.