FC Botosani vs UTA Arad
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-10 · 16:15 CET
WLLLD
LWWLLThe score model made an FC Botosani win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.41 – 1.05 UTA Arad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani win | 45.0% | 38.9% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| UTA Arad win | 27.5% | 33.4% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 51.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 30.5% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 57.0% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 35.4% | -6.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Botosani 46 / UTA Arad 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Botosani vs UTA Arad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.