Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs Univ. Craiova
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-11 · 17:00 CET
LDWLD
WWWWDThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 0.84 – 2.04 Univ. Craiova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 14.1% | 10.3% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 17.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Univ. Craiova win | 65.1% | 71.9% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 57.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 35.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 45.6% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 40.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 32.5 / Univ. Craiova 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.