FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Univ. Craiova
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-31 · 19:30 CET
WDWWW
WDWWWThe score model made an FC Rapid Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Rapid Bucuresti 1.25 – 1.08 Univ. Craiova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 39.7% | 33.7% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 29.0% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Univ. Craiova win | 31.5% | 37.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 46.2% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 26.1% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 52.4% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 31.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Rapid Bucuresti 46.7 / Univ. Craiova 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.