FC Arges vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-29 · 17:30 CET
LLLDL
DWLWLThe score model made an FC Arges win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 22%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Arges 0.92 – 0.68 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arges win | 39.3% | 42.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 35.5% | 31.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 25.3% | 26.4% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21.7% | 35.9% | -14.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7.9% | 17.7% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 30.0% | 43.2% | -13.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 25.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Arges 33.9 / Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 20.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.