Farul Constanta vs FC Botosani
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
DDDWL
WDWDLThe score model made a Farul Constanta win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.54 – 0.97 FC Botosani.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta win | 50.3% | 48.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.3% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| FC Botosani win | 23.5% | 25.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 53.3% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 31.9% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 56.2% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 37.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Farul Constanta 46.8 / FC Botosani 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.