Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs CFR Cluj
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
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WWDLWThe score model made a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 1.01 – 1.77 CFR Cluj.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 21.1% | 25.9% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 27.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| CFR Cluj win | 55.0% | 46.7% | +8.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 49.1% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 29.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 52.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 33.6% | +8.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 31.2 / CFR Cluj 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.