FC Botosani vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-24 · 17:30 CET
DDLDL
LLLLDThe score model makes a FC Botosani win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.5% vs 68.6% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.72 – 0.88 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani win | 56.9% | 56.6% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.5% | -0.2% |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 18.7% | 18.8% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 52.4% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 31.4% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 52.3% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.8% | 36.3% | +3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Botosani 45.9 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.