Univ. Craiova vs FC Voluntari
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
WDWWW
LDWLLThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Univ. Craiova 2.69 – 0.73 FC Voluntari.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. Craiova win | 78.5% | 68.0% | +10.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.0% | 19.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| FC Voluntari win | 7.5% | 12.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 55.4% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.7% | 33.9% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 47.5% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 37.3% | +5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Univ. Craiova 46.6 / FC Voluntari 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.