Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-23 · 15:00 CET
DWLWL
DDDWLThe score model made a Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 1.43 – 0.85 Farul Constanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 50.5% | 34.7% | +15.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 30.0% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Farul Constanta win | 21.8% | 35.3% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 43.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 24.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 50.9% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 30.2% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 19.9 / Farul Constanta 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.