Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-23 · 15:00 CET
LWDDD
LWDWDThe score model makes a Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win — 50.7% vs 37.5% implied (+13.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 1.44 – 0.84 Farul Constanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 50.7% | 37.5% | +13.2% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.9% | -2.2% |
| Farul Constanta win | 21.6% | 32.6% | -10.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 44.2% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 25.0% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 51.1% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 30.5% | +2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 20 / Farul Constanta 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.