Petrolul vs FC Rapid Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-21 · 19:30 CET
WLLWW
WDWDLThe score model makes an FC Rapid Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 69.5% vs 56.2% implied (+13.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrolul 0.84 – 1.09 FC Rapid Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul win | 27.5% | 27.2% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 29.0% | +3.0% |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 40.5% | 43.9% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.4% | 43.8% | -13.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.1% | 23.8% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% | 49.5% | -11.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 30.2% | -8.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Petrolul 46 / FC Rapid Bucuresti 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.