FCSB vs FC Botosani
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-17 · 20:30 CET
LWWDD
LDDLDThe score model makes a FCSB win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.5% vs 64.4% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FCSB 1.84 – 0.81 FC Botosani.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB win | 61.4% | 60.2% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 22.7% | -0.0% |
| FC Botosani win | 15.9% | 17.1% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 56.7% | -7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 35.6% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 54.4% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 38.6% | +1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FCSB 45.4 / FC Botosani 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.