Otelul vs Univ. Craiova
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WDLLL
WDWWWThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Otelul 1.11 – 1.37 Univ. Craiova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otelul win | 30.0% | 22.5% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.8% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Univ. Craiova win | 42.5% | 50.7% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 48.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 28.0% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 51.4% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 33.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Otelul 43.3 / Univ. Craiova 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.