Otelul vs Univ. Craiova
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WWDDL
DWLWLThe score model makes an Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Otelul win — 30.1% vs 23.3% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Otelul 1.11 – 1.37 Univ. Craiova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Otelul win | 30.1% | 23.3% | +6.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.2% | +0.2% |
| Univ. Craiova win | 42.4% | 49.5% | -7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 48.1% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 27.7% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 51.8% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 32.8% | +2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Otelul 43.5 / Univ. Craiova 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.