Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
WLLLL
LLWDDThe score model makes an Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 39.0% vs 29.4% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 0.99 – 1.40 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 26.4% | 30.6% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 29.6% | -2.1% |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 46.1% | 39.8% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 41.5% | +1.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 22.1% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 48.4% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 29.4% | +9.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 30.1 / Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 19.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.