Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
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DWLWLThe score model made a Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 0.99 – 1.40 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 26.4% | 30.5% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 30.3% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 46.1% | 39.3% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 41.0% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 21.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 48.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 29.3% | +9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 30 / Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 19.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.