CFR Cluj vs U. Cluj
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-10-08 · 19:30 CET
DLWLW
LWWWLThe score model made a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CFR Cluj 1.60 – 1.10 U. Cluj.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cluj win | 48.7% | 38.3% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 28.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| U. Cluj win | 25.7% | 33.6% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 55.9% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 34.9% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 60.6% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 38.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CFR Cluj 45.7 / U. Cluj 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.