CFR Cluj vs U. Cluj
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-10 · 20:30 CET
DDLWL
LDWLWThe score model makes a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CFR Cluj win — 48.1% vs 44.3% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CFR Cluj 1.53 – 1.05 U. Cluj.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cluj win | 48.1% | 44.3% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.9% | -1.8% |
| U. Cluj win | 25.8% | 27.8% | -2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 47.4% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 27.1% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 51.9% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 32.3% | +1.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CFR Cluj 45.5 / U. Cluj 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.