Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
WDWLW
LDWWLThe score model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.29 – 0.93 Gil Vicente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 45.5% | 44.2% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 29.7% | -3.0% |
| Gil Vicente win | 27.8% | 26.0% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 36.6% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 19.0% | -0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 42.3% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 26.3% | -1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Santa Clara 28.5 / Gil Vicente 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.