Famalicao vs Arouca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-11-06 · 21:45 CET
DWLWL
LDWWWThe score model makes a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Arouca win — 30.4% vs 25.0% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Famalicao 1.39 – 1.09 Arouca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 44.5% | 47.8% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.2% | -2.1% |
| Arouca win | 30.4% | 25.0% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 49.3% | -4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 28.6% | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 53.0% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 33.7% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Famalicao 28.5 / Arouca 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Famalicao vs Arouca in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.