Tondela vs SC Farense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-15 · 12:00 CET
WWLWD
WWLDLThe score model makes a Tondela win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Tondela win — 50.4% vs 47.2% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tondela 1.52 – 0.97 SC Farense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela win | 50.4% | 47.2% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 27.9% | -2.9% |
| SC Farense win | 24.6% | 25.0% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | 46.0% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 25.6% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 50.4% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 31.8% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tondela 25.2 / SC Farense 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tondela vs SC Farense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.