Penafiel vs Lusitania FC
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-15 · 16:30 CET
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WDDDLThe score model makes a Penafiel win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Penafiel win — 52.5% vs 39.8% implied (+12.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Penafiel 1.71 – 1.08 Lusitania FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel win | 52.5% | 39.8% | +12.7% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 31.1% | -8.0% |
| Lusitania FC win | 24.4% | 29.0% | -4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 45.4% | +7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 26.3% | +4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 51.9% | +1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 31.3% | +2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Penafiel 44.3 / Lusitania FC 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Penafiel vs Lusitania FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.