Leixoes vs Chaves
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-15 · 19:00 CET
DLLLD
LDWLLThe score model makes a Leixoes win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chaves win — 34.7% vs 26.5% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leixoes 1.47 – 1.33 Chaves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 40.9% | 45.8% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.6% | -3.3% |
| Chaves win | 34.7% | 26.5% | +8.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 49.7% | +3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 29.3% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 54.0% | +2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 34.0% | +2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Leixoes 44.3 / Chaves 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leixoes vs Chaves in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.