Torreense vs Leiria
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-09 · 21:15 CET
WDLWD
WDLDWThe score model makes a Leiria win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Leiria win — 41.4% vs 29.7% implied (+11.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torreense 1.21 – 1.39 Leiria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense win | 33.2% | 43.9% | -10.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.4% | -1.0% |
| Leiria win | 41.4% | 29.7% | +11.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 52.8% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 32.6% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 56.5% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 36.0% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Torreense 44 / Leiria 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torreense vs Leiria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.