Sporting CP B vs Tondela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-08 · 19:00 CET
WLWWW
WWWLWThe score model makes a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.8% vs 74.4% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 1.19 – 1.16 Tondela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B win | 37.1% | 33.9% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 29.9% | -2.9% |
| Tondela win | 35.8% | 36.2% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 44.7% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 25.6% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 51.2% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.3% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sporting CP B 27.6 / Tondela 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting CP B vs Tondela in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.