Feirense vs Lusitania FC
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
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WWDDDThe score model makes a Feirense win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.2% vs 72.9% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feirense 1.18 – 1.16 Lusitania FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 36.9% | 33.0% | +3.9% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 29.4% | -2.2% |
| Lusitania FC win | 35.9% | 37.6% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 43.5% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 27.1% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 49.9% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 30.9% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Feirense 44 / Lusitania FC 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Feirense vs Lusitania FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.