FC Porto B vs Portimonense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
LDWDL
LLWLDThe score model makes an FC Porto B win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Porto B win — 39.5% vs 28.7% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.30 – 1.20 Portimonense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B win | 39.5% | 28.7% | +10.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.7% | -2.6% |
| Portimonense win | 34.5% | 42.7% | -8.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 45.6% | -0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 25.4% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 51.1% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.7% | -2.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Porto B 44 / Portimonense 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Porto B vs Portimonense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.