Legia vs Rakow
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
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LLLWLThe score model makes a Legia win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Legia win — 57.0% vs 53.0% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legia 1.98 – 1.08 Rakow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia win | 57.0% | 53.0% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.0% | -1.1% |
| Rakow win | 19.1% | 22.1% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 55.3% | +3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 35.1% | +1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 56.3% | +1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 38.4% | -1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Legia 46.8 / Rakow 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Legia vs Rakow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.