Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 20:15 CET
WWWWW
WLLWDThe score model makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lech Poznan win — 67.1% vs 64.9% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.26 – 0.90 Zaglebie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan win | 67.1% | 64.9% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 20.3% | +0.1% |
| Zaglebie win | 12.6% | 14.8% | -2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 61.5% | -0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | 41.1% | -2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 55.6% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 42.7% | -0.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lech Poznan 46 / Zaglebie 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.