Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 14:45 CET
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WWLLWThe score model makes a Jagiellonia win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jagiellonia win — 47.7% vs 43.0% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.87 – 1.39 GKS Katowice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia win | 47.7% | 43.0% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.0% | -0.2% |
| GKS Katowice win | 27.5% | 32.0% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 63.3% | +0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 43.0% | -1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 64.9% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 43.7% | -1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jagiellonia 46 / GKS Katowice 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.