Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-11-07 · 20:15 CET
DLDDL
WWWWWThe score model makes a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Pogon Szczecin win — 35.9% vs 29.8% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Widzew Lodz 1.36 – 1.37 Pogon Szczecin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz win | 35.6% | 42.8% | -7.2% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.3% | +1.1% |
| Pogon Szczecin win | 35.9% | 29.8% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Widzew Lodz 46.5 / Pogon Szczecin 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.