Legia vs Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-14 · 20:30 CET
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LLWLLThe score model makes a Legia win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 42.9% vs 38.6% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legia 1.95 – 1.01 Radomiak Radom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia win | 58.4% | 58.8% | -0.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.8% | +0.8% |
| Radomiak Radom win | 18.1% | 18.5% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 57.3% | -0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 36.5% | -2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 55.2% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 38.6% | +4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legia 44.5 / Radomiak Radom 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.