Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 20:15 CET
LWLDW
DDWWWThe score model makes a Ruch Chorzow win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 54.9% vs 50.0% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.25 – 1.63 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec win | 28.9% | 29.5% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.8% | -1.5% |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 45.7% | 43.6% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 50.0% | +4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 30.4% | +2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 53.8% | +4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 33.5% | +2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stal Mielec 31.1 / Ruch Chorzow 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.