Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 12:15 CET
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WWWLWThe score model makes a Polonia Bytom win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lechia Gdansk win — 37.5% vs 32.0% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 1.70 – 1.67 Lechia Gdansk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Bytom win | 38.8% | 43.2% | -4.4% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.8% | -1.1% |
| Lechia Gdansk win | 37.5% | 32.0% | +5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.4% | 63.2% | +2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.5% | 44.1% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 65.5% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | 43.0% | +1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Polonia Bytom 31 / Lechia Gdansk 16.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.