Pogon Siedlce vs Grodzisk M.
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
WLLLW
WWLLLThe score model makes a Grodzisk M. win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grodzisk M. win — 38.8% vs 33.7% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Siedlce 1.20 – 1.32 Grodzisk M..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Siedlce win | 33.3% | 38.7% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.7% | +0.3% |
| Grodzisk M. win | 38.8% | 33.7% | +5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 47.4% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 28.3% | -3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 52.3% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 32.0% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pogon Siedlce 40.1 / Grodzisk M. 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pogon Siedlce vs Grodzisk M. in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.