Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-07 · 15:30 CET
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DWLWDThe score model makes an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Arka Gdynia win — 53.3% vs 44.4% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.68 – 0.98 Podbeskidzie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 53.3% | 44.4% | +8.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.6% | -1.3% |
| Podbeskidzie win | 21.5% | 29.0% | -7.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 54.6% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 34.0% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 58.1% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 37.8% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 26.4 / Podbeskidzie 18 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.