Puszcza vs Legnica
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
LLWLW
LLWDDThe score model makes a Puszcza win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.7% vs 63.2% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puszcza 1.30 – 1.29 Legnica.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza win | 36.6% | 37.7% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.2% | +1.3% |
| Legnica win | 35.9% | 36.1% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 57.0% | -9.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 36.8% | -10.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 60.4% | -7.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 39.7% | -8.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Puszcza 31.6 / Legnica 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Puszcza vs Legnica in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.