Odra Opole vs Skierniewice
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
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DDLLLThe score model makes an Odra Opole win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 58.2% vs 49.3% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Odra Opole 1.29 – 1.06 Skierniewice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odra Opole win | 41.3% | 42.6% | -1.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.3% | +1.6% |
| Skierniewice win | 29.8% | 30.1% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 50.7% | -8.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 29.6% | -8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 55.3% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.6% | -7.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Odra Opole 45.8 / Skierniewice 11.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Odra Opole vs Skierniewice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.