Grodzisk M. vs S. Rzeszow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-14 · 18:00 CET
DDWLW
LWWWWThe score model made a Grodzisk M. win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grodzisk M. 1.99 – 1.27 S. Rzeszow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grodzisk M. win | 53.4% | 51.4% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.4% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| S. Rzeszow win | 23.4% | 24.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 61.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.0% | 41.3% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 62.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 43.0% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grodzisk M. 25.5 / S. Rzeszow 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.