Sandefjord vs Molde
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
WDLLW
LDWWLThe score model makes a Molde win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.0% vs 50.0% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.47 – 1.88 Molde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord win | 30.5% | 23.9% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 21.9% | +0.2% |
| Molde win | 47.4% | 54.3% | -6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 69.3% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.0% | 50.0% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 67.3% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 48.5% | -3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sandefjord 42.4 / Molde 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sandefjord vs Molde in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.