Lillestrom vs Aalesund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
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WLWLLThe score model makes a Lillestrom win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lillestrom win — 54.9% vs 51.8% implied (+3.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lillestrom 2.24 – 1.48 Aalesund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 54.9% | 51.8% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 19.9% | 22.3% | -2.4% |
| Aalesund win | 25.1% | 25.9% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 69.2% | +2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.9% | 49.7% | +1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | 67.8% | +1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 48.1% | +1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lillestrom 29.7 / Aalesund 23.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lillestrom vs Aalesund in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.