HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
LWLLD
LWLWLThe score model makes a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HamKam 1.44 – 1.77 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam win | 31.5% | 30.9% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 25.3% | -2.5% |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 45.7% | 43.9% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 61.5% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.9% | 40.7% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 63.7% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 41.8% | -0.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: HamKam 42.5 / Sarpsborg 08 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.