Fredrikstad vs Brann
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-08 · 19:15 CET
DDLLL
WLLLWThe score model makes a Brann win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 64.9% vs 57.3% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.43 – 1.57 Brann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad win | 35.1% | 35.0% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.1% | -1.2% |
| Brann win | 41.0% | 39.9% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 62.0% | -4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 41.3% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 64.4% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 42.7% | -7.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Fredrikstad 39 / Brann 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fredrikstad vs Brann in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.