Rosenborg vs Start
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
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LLLWLThe score model makes a Rosenborg win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 72.2% vs 70.1% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosenborg 2.85 – 0.89 Start.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg win | 77.6% | 76.6% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 13.4% | 14.3% | -1.0% |
| Start win | 9.0% | 9.1% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.2% | 70.1% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.5% | 50.9% | +0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 54.2% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.2% | 48.9% | +1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Rosenborg 42.2 / Start 20 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rosenborg vs Start in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.