Rosenborg vs Viking
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
WLWWW
LWDWWThe score model made a Viking win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosenborg 1.48 – 1.78 Viking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg win | 32.7% | 37.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Viking win | 45.2% | 37.3% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 65.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 45.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 66.9% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 44.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rosenborg 40.1 / Viking 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.