Rosenborg vs Viking
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
WWWLW
WWDWWThe score model makes an Viking win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Viking win — 45.2% vs 39.3% implied (+5.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rosenborg 1.48 – 1.78 Viking.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg win | 32.7% | 36.1% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.5% | -2.5% |
| Viking win | 45.2% | 39.3% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 64.7% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 44.5% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 66.4% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.9% | 44.7% | +2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rosenborg 40.2 / Viking 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.