Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 12:30
The score model makes a Lillestrom win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.46 – 1.35 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 40.4% | 40.0% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.5% | -2.1% |
| Rosenborg win | 35.2% | 33.4% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 58.8% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 37.8% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 61.6% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 40.1% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lillestrom 24.9 / Rosenborg 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.