Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 14:30 CET
DLWWL
WLWWWThe score model made a Lillestrom win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.47 – 1.36 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 40.5% | 40.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Rosenborg win | 35.6% | 33.6% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 58.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 37.9% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 61.7% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 40.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lillestrom 24.8 / Rosenborg 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.