Kristiansund vs Molde
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 19:15 CET
LDWLL
WWWWLThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristiansund 1.10 – 1.78 Molde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund win | 23.9% | 20.7% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Molde win | 53.9% | 55.9% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 62.9% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 42.4% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 61.7% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 43.0% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristiansund 35.9 / Molde 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.