Kristiansund vs Molde
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 17:15
The score model makes an Molde win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristiansund 1.10 – 1.77 Molde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund win | 23.9% | 20.4% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.1% | -1.5% |
| Molde win | 53.5% | 55.5% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 60.5% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 40.2% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 59.9% | -5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 41.3% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristiansund 36 / Molde 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.