HamKam vs Aalesund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 15:00
The score model makes a HamKam win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HamKam 2.34 – 1.16 Aalesund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam win | 64.1% | 44.2% | +20.0% |
| Draw | 18.2% | 25.6% | -7.4% |
| Aalesund win | 17.7% | 30.2% | -12.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 61.3% | +6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.3% | 41.0% | +5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 63.4% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 41.8% | +1.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HamKam 39.9 / Aalesund 17.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.