HamKam vs Aalesund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
LDLLL
DLWLWThe score model made a HamKam win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HamKam 2.35 – 1.16 Aalesund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam win | 64.2% | 44.8% | +19.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.9% | 25.3% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Aalesund win | 17.9% | 29.9% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | 63.0% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.7% | 42.6% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 64.7% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 43.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HamKam 39.8 / Aalesund 17.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.